Serbia U19 2–2 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus U19

L. Đorđević 85'

M. Cvetković 4'

E. Mikanovich 72'

T. Simanenka 51'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Serbia U1956%

×Draw23%

Belarus U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.02

Serbia U19

1.81

Belarus U19

1.02

Serbia U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

79%

Serbia U19 or Belarus U19

77%

Draw or Belarus U19

44%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

32%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

84%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

54%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

27%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

64%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

27%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

56%

level

23%

Belarus U19 scores more

21%

Serbia U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Cvetković

28'

V. Vukojevic

46'

P. Shevchenko← A. Dayneko

46'

T. Simanenka← M. Mokin

51'

T. Simanenka

63'

M. Kononov← T. Melnichenko

69'

L. Đorđević← A. Subotić

69'

S. Stojković← V. Vukojević

72'

E. Mikanovich

74'

U. Sremčević← O. Ugrešić

76'

A. Bacanin

81'

M. Sokolovskiy← A. Sokolovskiy

83'

R. Mialkouski

85'

J. Ćirić← M. Popović

85'

S. Mitrović← A. Bačanin

85'

L. Đorđević

88'

P. Shevchenko

90+4'

J. Ciric

90+4'

M. Sokolovskiy

90'

E. Bozhko← R. Myalkovskiy

Serbia

Belarus

16

4

23

15

8

▼

Sokolovsk

13

▼

Dayneko

17

⚽

Mikanovic

7

▼

Myalkovsk

10

▼

Mokin

11

▼

20

12

3

4

5

16

20

▼

Subotić

10

▼

Popović

22

▼

Ugrešić

14

▼

Bačanin

21

▼

Vukojević

7

⚽

Cvetković

Manager: A. Luković

69'▲L. Đorđević←▼A. Subotić

69'▲S. Stojković←▼V. Vukojević

74'▲U. Sremčević←▼O. Ugrešić

85'▲J. Ćirić←▼M. Popović

85'▲S. Mitrović←▼A. Bačanin

Serbia U19 substitutes

19Đorđević11Stojković9Sremčević17Ćirić8Mitrović6Popović2Vojnović18Rakić1Džodić

Manager: V. Pavlov

46'▲P. Shevchenko←▼A. Dayneko

46'▲T. Simanenka←▼M. Mokin

63'▲M. Kononov←▼T. Melnichenko

81'▲M. Sokolovskiy←▼A. Sokolovskiy

90'▲E. Bozhko←▼R. Myalkovskiy

Belarus U19 substitutes

22Shevchenko19Simanenka9Kononov21Sokolovskiy2Bozhko3Akatov1Veretynskiy5Kondratenya18Shaula

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 2–2 Belarus U19

Serbia U19 and Belarus U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

Goals: M. Cvetković (4'), T. Simanenka (51'), E. Mikanovich (72'), L. Đorđević (85').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sisak.

Serbia U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U19 2–2 Belarus U19