Serbia U19 2–0 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Armenia U19

L. Đorđević 61'

A. Bačanin 24'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Serbia U1959%

×Draw21%

Armenia U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.08

Serbia U19

2.03

Armenia U19

1.08

Serbia U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

80%

Serbia U19 or Armenia U19

79%

Draw or Armenia U19

41%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

36%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

87%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

60%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

33%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

66%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

29%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

59%

level

21%

Armenia U19 scores more

20%

Serbia U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Mikhayelyan

24'

A. Bačanin

37'

V. Milosavljevic

45'

A. Khachatryan

46'

J. Ćirić← O. Ugrešić

46'

S. Mitrović← A. Subotić

49'

D. Djuric

56'

A. Mikhayelyan

56'

A. Mikhayelyan

58'

H. Musikyan← D. Ghiasyan

58'

S. Hakobyan← S. Kirakosyan

61'

L. Đorđević

64'

U. Sremčević← M. Popović

77'

S. Rakić← A. Bačanin

82'

V. Vukojević← M. Cvetković

82'

K. Hovakimyan← H. Sargsyan

84'

A. Popovic

90+2'

S. Rakic

90'

A. Arakelyan← A. Askaryan

90'

D. Batoyan← N. Hovhannisyan

Serbia

Armenia

12

Chatoyan

3

Mikhayely

20

▼

Sargsyan

2

Khachatry

5

Manukyan

10

▼

Ghiasyan

7

Harutyuny

8

Simonyan

17

▼

Askaryan

19

▼

Kirakosya

11

▼

1

3

4

6

16

20

▼

Subotić

10

▼

Popović

22

▼

Ugrešić

14

⚽

▼

Bačanin

7

▼

Cvetković

19

⚽

Đorđević

Manager: A. Luković

46'▲J. Ćirić←▼O. Ugrešić

46'▲S. Mitrović←▼A. Subotić

64'▲U. Sremčević←▼M. Popović

77'▲S. Rakić←▼A. Bačanin

82'▲V. Vukojević←▼M. Cvetković

Serbia U19 substitutes

17Ćirić8Mitrović9Sremčević18Rakić21Vukojević2Vojnović5Simić11Stojković12Jovanović

Manager: V. Minasyan

58'▲H. Musikyan←▼D. Ghiasyan

58'▲S. Hakobyan←▼S. Kirakosyan

82'▲K. Hovakimyan←▼H. Sargsyan

90'▲A. Arakelyan←▼A. Askaryan

90'▲D. Batoyan←▼N. Hovhannisyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

15Musikyan14Hakobyan13Hovakimyan6Arakelyan16Batoyan9Gharibyan18Grigoryan1Ghazaryan4Ghazaryan

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Armenia U19

Serbia U19 beat Armenia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Bačanin (24'), L. Đorđević (61').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sisak.

Serbia U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Armenia U19