Serbia U19 vs Andorra U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Serbia U1966%
Andorra U1913%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Serbia U19 creates 162% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Serbia U19 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches
Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94
Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.74
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
Serbia U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Serbia U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Israel U19Andorra U19
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Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Serbia U19 host Andorra U19 on Wednesday, 15 November 2023 at 09:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Andorra U19
Serbia U19 beat Andorra U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.
Goals: U. Sremčević (15').
The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.