Serbia U19 2–2 Albania U19: Result & Stats

Serbia U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Albania U19

M. Lazetić 77'

N. Mituljikić 42'

C. Shpendi 88'

H. Nerguti 84'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Serbia U1970%

×Draw18%

Albania U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Serbia U19Expected goals in this matchAlbania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.78

Serbia U19

2.21

Albania U19

0.78

Serbia U19 creates 183% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

0.40

1.16

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Serbia U19

1.63

Albania U19

0.40

allows per match

Serbia U19

1.16

Albania U19

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U19 ↓

Albania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Serbia U19 or draw

88%

Serbia U19 or Albania U19

82%

Draw or Albania U19

30%

Winning margin

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

46%

Albania U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Serbia U19 1+ goals

89%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

65%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

38%

Albania U19 1+ goals

54%

Albania U19 2+ goals

18%

Albania U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U19 attack 1.63 + Albania U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Serbia U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Serbia U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Albania U19 scores more

12%

Serbia U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

N. Mituljikić

61'

M. Lazetić← J. Mituljikić

72'

C. Shpendi← S. Bibo

72'

K. Dervishi← D. Hysaj

77'

M. Lazetić

78'

R. Alivoda← E. Zenelaj

78'

Z. Arapi← P. Pjeshka

84'

M. Đorđević← N. Mituljikić

84'

H. Nerguti

85'

M. Gluščević← O. Ajdar

88'

C. Shpendi

90'

M. Çipi← A. Mata

Serbia

Albania

12

Simoni

4

Preka

5

Zalli

7

▼

Pjeshka

8

⚽

Nerguti

18

▼

Hysaj

3

Bytyqi

10

▼

Mata

6

▼

Zenelaj

16

▼

9

12

5

14

10

▼

Mituljiki

15

Subotić

8

Stanković

17

⚽

▼

Mituljiki

4

Petković

11

▼

Ajdar

20

Motika

3

Krsmanovi

Manager: D. Branković

61'▲M. Lazetić←▼J. Mituljikić

84'▲M. Đorđević←▼N. Mituljikić

85'▲M. Gluščević←▼O. Ajdar

Serbia U19 substitutes

9Lazetić6Đorđević7Gluščević1Ćopić22Baždar16Kovačević18Kabić19Hrstić2Lazić

Manager: A. Cungu

72'▲C. Shpendi←▼S. Bibo

72'▲K. Dervishi←▼D. Hysaj

78'▲R. Alivoda←▼E. Zenelaj

78'▲Z. Arapi←▼P. Pjeshka

90'▲M. Çipi←▼A. Mata

Albania U19 substitutes

11Shpendi2Dervishi15Alivoda17Arapi20Çipi1Weiper14Bebeziqi19Shpendi

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Albania U19

Serbia U19 and Albania U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2021.

Goals: N. Mituljikić (42'), M. Lazetić (77'), H. Nerguti (84'), C. Shpendi (88').

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.

Serbia U19 vs Albania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Serbia U19 vs Albania U19