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Serbia U17 vs Luxembourg U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Serbia U17
Serbia U17
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Luxembourg U17
Luxembourg U17
10/24/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Sportski Centar Fudbalskog saveza Srbije

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Serbia U1775%
×Draw15%
Luxembourg U1710%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Serbia U17
2.69
Luxembourg U17
0.90

Serbia U17 creates 199% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Serbia U17
3.38
Luxembourg U17
0.91

allows per match

Serbia U17
0.88
Luxembourg U17
2.00

finishing

Serbia U17+0.00on par
Luxembourg U17+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serbia U17 ↓

Luxembourg U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Serbia U17 or draw
90%
Serbia U17 or Luxembourg U17
85%
Draw or Luxembourg U17
25%

Winning margin

Serbia U17 wins by 2+
53%
Luxembourg U17 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Serbia U17 1+ goals
93%
Serbia U17 2+ goals
74%
Serbia U17 3+ goals
49%
Luxembourg U17 1+ goals
59%
Luxembourg U17 2+ goals
23%
Luxembourg U17 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Serbia U17 (draw refunded)
88%
Luxembourg U17 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Serbia U17 at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Luxembourg U17 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Serbia U17 attack 3.38 + Luxembourg U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

Luxembourg U17 attack 0.91 + Serbia U17 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Serbia U17 scores more
75%
level
15%
Luxembourg U17 scores more
10%

Serbia U17 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Serbia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Serbia U17 3–0 Luxembourg U17

Serbia U17 beat Luxembourg U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Fudbalskog saveza Srbije in Stara Pazova.