Seraing United 0–2 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

Seraing United

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

SK Beveren

K. Abrahams 36'

A. Corryn 21'

2/9/2025

League #145 · Round 21Stade du Pairay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Seraing United31%

×Draw26%

SK Beveren43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seraing UnitedExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.47

Seraing United

1.22

SK Beveren

1.47

SK Beveren creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

0.88

creates per match

1.44

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Seraing United

0.88

SK Beveren

1.44

allows per match

Seraing United

1.50

SK Beveren

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw

57%

Seraing United or SK Beveren

74%

Draw or SK Beveren

69%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+

13%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals

70%

Seraing United 2+ goals

34%

Seraing United 3+ goals

12%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

77%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

43%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)

42%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.88 + SK Beveren defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

SK Beveren attack 1.44 + Seraing United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seraing United scores more

31%

level

26%

SK Beveren scores more

43%

SK Beveren at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SK Beveren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Margueron

Seraing United · G

9.0

Match Events

21'

A. Corryn↳ G. De Schryver

36'

K. Abrahams↳ G. De Schryver

46'

P. Ouotro← S. Faye

64'

G. Alalabang← D. Diarra

66'

J. Van Hecke← C. Brüls

66'

L. Kerrigan← K. Abrahams

72'

N. Bouchentouf← Y. Lawson

72'

N. Serwy← N. Schouterden

76'

Marvin Tshibuabua

76'

Laurent Jans

80'

S. Bateau← A. Corryn

80'

M. Servais← G. De Schryver

81'

M. Allione← S. Buggea

90'

F. Dicke← A. Limbombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeraingSK

Overview

44%Possession56%

4Total Shots17

4Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots17

2On Target11

1Off Target6

1Blocked0

4Inside Box13

0Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

368Total Passes476

246Accurate Passes370

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4