Seraing United 0–0 MVV: Result & Stats

Seraing United

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

MVV

7/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Seraing United22%

×Draw30%

MVV48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seraing UnitedExpected goals in this matchMVV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

1.22

Seraing United

0.72

MVV

1.22

MVV creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.33

creates per match

2.11

0.33

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Seraing United

0.33

MVV

2.11

allows per match

Seraing United

0.33

MVV

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seraing United+0.00on par

MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seraing United ↓

MVV →

0–014%

0–118%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Seraing United or draw

52%

Seraing United or MVV

70%

Draw or MVV

78%

Winning margin

Seraing United wins by 2+

MVV wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Seraing United 1+ goals

51%

Seraing United 2+ goals

16%

Seraing United 3+ goals

MVV 1+ goals

70%

MVV 2+ goals

34%

MVV 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seraing United (draw refunded)

31%

MVV (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Seraing United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

MVV away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Seraing United attack 0.33 + MVV defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.72

MVV attack 2.11 + Seraing United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Seraing United scores more

22%

level

30%

MVV scores more

48%

MVV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Seraing

MVV

Manager: Kevin Caprasse

Manager: Edwin Hermans