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Septemvri Tervel vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
CANC
14:00
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
9/9/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Septemvri Tervel87%
×Draw9%
Sportist G.Toshevo4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
3.46
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.70

Septemvri Tervel creates 394% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 40 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
96%
Septemvri Tervel or Sportist G.Toshevo
91%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
13%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
71%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
97%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
85%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
65%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
50%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
16%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
95%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.46

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
87%
level
9%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
4%

Septemvri Tervel at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Tervel vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Match Preview

Septemvri Tervel face Sportist G.Toshevo on September 9, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Septemvri Tervel host Sportist G.Toshevo at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.