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Septemvri Tervel vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
8/13/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Septemvri Tervel78%
×Draw14%
Lokomotiv Ruse8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.75
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.76

Septemvri Tervel creates 262% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
92%
Septemvri Tervel or Lokomotiv Ruse
86%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
22%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
58%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
93%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
75%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
51%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
91%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.75

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
78%
level
14%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
8%

Septemvri Tervel at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Septemvri Tervel 5–1 Lokomotiv Ruse

Septemvri Tervel beat Lokomotiv Ruse 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.