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Septemvri Sofia vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
4/29/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Septemvri Sofia57%
×Draw23%
Ludogorets II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
1.75
Ludogorets II
0.91

Septemvri Sofia creates 92% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 131 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
2.10
Ludogorets II
0.93

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
0.88
Ludogorets II
1.41

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
81%
Septemvri Sofia or Ludogorets II
77%
Draw or Ludogorets II
43%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
32%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
83%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
52%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
25%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
60%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
23%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
75%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
57%
level
23%
Ludogorets II scores more
19%

Septemvri Sofia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Ludogorets II

Septemvri Sofia beat Ludogorets II 2-1 in Second League on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.