Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Septemvri Sofia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

K. Önaşçı 76'

V. Ochayi 39'

D. Iliev 82'

M. Paskalev 71'

M. Haydarov 67'

8/26/2024

First League · Round 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Septemvri Sofia42%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.33

Septemvri Sofia

1.54

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.33

Septemvri Sofia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

1.07

1.59

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.37

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.07

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

1.59

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.70

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia-0.60scores less

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

67%

Septemvri Sofia or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

58%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

21%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

79%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

45%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

20%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

38%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

56%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.37 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.07 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

42%

level

25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

33%

Septemvri Sofia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

44'

46'

46'

46'

J. N'Zi← G. Karakashev

55'

M. Haydarov← H. Ivanov

61'

F. Ellé Essouma← M. Morán

67'

M. Haydarov

71'

M. Paskalev

72'

N. Drosev← M. Polendakov

72'

A. Dzhamov← B. Rupanov

72'

Vitinho← F. Steponavičius

73'

I. Ivanov← E. Ali

76'

K. Önaşçı

82'

D. Iliev

84'

N. Velichkovski← V. Ochayi

90+3'

Kristian Tomov

90+2'

Jorge Segura

Septemvri4-1-4-1

Lokomotiv4-3-3

99

▼

Lamy

14

⚽

Iliev

17

▼

Penev

6

▼

Ivanov

12

▼

Ali

33

▼

Karakashe

44

Lyaskov

91

Segura

4

⚽

16

81

21

27

18

⚽

Önaşçı

26

Hristov

5

▼

Polendako

6

⚽

▼

Ochayi

19

Mitkov

8

▼

Morán

20

▼

Steponavi

11

▼

Rupanov

15

Fourrier

Manager: N. Mitov

61'▲F. Ellé Essouma←▼M. Morán

72'▲N. Drosev←▼M. Polendakov

72'▲A. Dzhamov←▼B. Rupanov

72'▲Vitinho←▼F. Steponavičius

84'▲N. Velichkovski←▼V. Ochayi

Septemvri Sofia substitutes

28Essouma7Drosev25Dzhamov22Vitinho23Velichkovski9Dotsev10Achol24Radkov3Tomov

Manager: L. Penev

46'▲M. Petkov←▼J. Lamy

46'▲O. Kamdem←▼N. Penev

46'▲J. N'Zi←▼G. Karakashev

55'▲M. Haydarov←▼H. Ivanov

73'▲I. Ivanov←▼E. Ali

Lokomotiv Plovdiv substitutes

10Petkov71Kamdem75N'Zi19Haydarov22Ivanov1Ambartsumyan5Pavlov20Petrović