Septemvri Sofia 2–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Septemvri Sofia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

2/19/2024

Second League · Round 21Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Septemvri Sofia51%

×Draw24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SofiaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.11

Septemvri Sofia

1.68

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.11

Septemvri Sofia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 71 away

2.10

creates per match

1.35

0.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia

2.10

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.35

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia

0.88

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw

75%

Septemvri Sofia or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

76%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II

49%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

27%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

81%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

50%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

67%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

67%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.68

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more

51%

level

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

25%

Septemvri Sofia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff