Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
Septemvri Sofia68%
Botev Plovdiv II12%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Septemvri Sofia creates 189% more chances
Season form · 59 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Septemvri Sofia ↓
Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 59 matches
Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Septemvri Sofia attack 2.10 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02
Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Septemvri Sofia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Septemvri Sofia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Dunav Ruse
Yantra 2019
Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Septemvri Sofia host Botev Plovdiv II on Wednesday, 4 May 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Second League: Septemvri Sofia 3–0 Botev Plovdiv II
Septemvri Sofia beat Botev Plovdiv II 3-0 in Second League on May 4, 2022.
Goals: A. Georgiev (49'), A. Todorov (70'), A. Kabov (81').
The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.