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Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
3/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Stadion Dragalevtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Septemvri Sofia34%
×Draw28%
Arda Kardzhali38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
1.10
Arda Kardzhali
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 120 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.04
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.39
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
62%
Septemvri Sofia or Arda Kardzhali
72%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
66%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
13%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
67%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
30%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
10%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
70%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
33%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
47%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.04 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
34%
level
28%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
38%

Arda Kardzhali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Septemvri Sofia 4-1 in First League on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Dragalevtsi in Sofia.