Septemvri Sofia II 2–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Septemvri Sofia II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

11/18/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion German

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II51%

×Draw24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Septemvri Sofia II

1.75

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.15

Septemvri Sofia II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 52 away

1.70

creates per match

1.21

1.09

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.70

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.09

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw

75%

Septemvri Sofia II or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

76%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

49%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

28%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

83%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

52%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

68%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

32%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

67%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

51%

level

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

25%

Septemvri Sofia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff