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Septemvri Simitli vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
4/5/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Septemvri Simitli41%
×Draw27%
Yantra 201932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.37
Yantra 2019
1.18

Septemvri Simitli creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.53
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.41
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
68%
Septemvri Simitli or Yantra 2019
73%
Draw or Yantra 2019
59%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
19%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
75%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
40%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
16%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
69%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
33%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
56%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
41%
level
27%
Yantra 2019 scores more
32%

Septemvri Simitli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Septemvri Simitli 1–1 Yantra 2019

Septemvri Simitli and Yantra 2019 drew 1-1 in Second League on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.