Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Septemvri Simitli vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
0 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
11/4/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Septemvri Simitli45%
×Draw27%
Vitosha Bistritsa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.37
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.00

Septemvri Simitli creates 37% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 69 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
73%
Septemvri Simitli or Vitosha Bistritsa
73%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
55%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
21%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
75%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
40%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
16%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
63%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
62%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
45%
level
27%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
27%

Septemvri Simitli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Septemvri Simitli and Vitosha Bistritsa drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.