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Septemvri Simitli vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
2 – 1
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
3/30/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 24Stadion Struma (Simitli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Septemvri Simitli71%
×Draw18%
Velbazhd11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
2.17
Velbazhd
0.69

Septemvri Simitli creates 214% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
89%
Septemvri Simitli or Velbazhd
82%
Draw or Velbazhd
29%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
47%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
89%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
64%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
36%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
50%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
15%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
87%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.17

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
71%
level
18%
Velbazhd scores more
11%

Septemvri Simitli at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Septemvri Simitli 2–1 Velbazhd

Septemvri Simitli beat Velbazhd 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Struma (Simitli).