Septemvri Simitli vs Kariana Erden

Septemvri Simitli

CANC

16:00

Kariana Erden

2/20/2021

Second League · Round 19Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Septemvri Simitli42%

×Draw26%

Kariana Erden32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SimitliExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.25

Septemvri Simitli

1.47

Kariana Erden

1.25

Septemvri Simitli creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.53

creates per match

1.09

1.41

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.53

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.41

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw

68%

Septemvri Simitli or Kariana Erden

74%

Draw or Kariana Erden

58%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

20%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

77%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

43%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

18%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

71%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

36%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

57%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more

42%

level

26%

Kariana Erden scores more

32%

Septemvri Simitli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff