Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Septemvri Simitli37%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 32 home / 71 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Septemvri Simitli ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches
CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39
CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Septemvri Simitli at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Tsarsko Selo
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Nesebar
DobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Septemvri Simitli host CSKA 1948 Sofia II on Saturday, 16 April 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Septemvri Simitli 4-1 in Second League on April 16, 2022.
Goals: G. Angelov (20'), D. N'Dongala (42'), V. Zlatinov (70'), E. Lichev (83'), S. Stoichkov (89').
The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.