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Septemvri Simitli vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
1 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
9/21/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 8Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Septemvri Simitli42%
×Draw26%
Chavdar Etropole32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.45
Chavdar Etropole
1.22

Septemvri Simitli creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
68%
Septemvri Simitli or Chavdar Etropole
74%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
58%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
20%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
77%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
42%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
18%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
70%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
34%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
57%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
42%
level
26%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
32%

Septemvri Simitli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Chavdar Etropole

Septemvri Simitli beat Chavdar Etropole 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.