Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chavdar Etropole vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
0 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
4/22/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Promotion Round - 5Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole58%
×Draw23%
Septemvri Simitli19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.78
Septemvri Simitli
0.90

Chavdar Etropole creates 98% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 94 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
81%
Chavdar Etropole or Septemvri Simitli
77%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
42%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
33%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
83%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
53%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
26%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
59%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
23%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
76%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
58%
level
23%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
19%

Chavdar Etropole at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 0–0 Septemvri Simitli

Chavdar Etropole and Septemvri Simitli drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.