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Septemvri Simitli vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
6/6/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 38Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Septemvri Simitli51%
×Draw25%
Balkan Botevgrad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.64
Balkan Botevgrad
1.07

Septemvri Simitli creates 53% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 131 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
75%
Septemvri Simitli or Balkan Botevgrad
75%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
49%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
27%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
81%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
49%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
23%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
66%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
29%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
67%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
51%
level
25%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
25%

Septemvri Simitli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Balkan Botevgrad

Septemvri Simitli and Balkan Botevgrad drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.