Fénix 3–0 General Lamadrid: Result & Stats

Fénix

FT

3 – 0

General Lamadrid

8/14/2012

Primera C · Round 2Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fénix43%

×Draw29%

General Lamadrid28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FénixExpected goals in this matchGeneral Lamadrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.94

Fénix

1.22

General Lamadrid

0.94

Fénix creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 137 away

1.07

creates per match

1.01

0.87

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Fénix

1.07

General Lamadrid

1.01

allows per match

Fénix

0.87

General Lamadrid

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par

General Lamadrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

General Lamadrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fénix or draw

72%

Fénix or General Lamadrid

71%

Draw or General Lamadrid

57%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+

19%

General Lamadrid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals

70%

Fénix 2+ goals

34%

Fénix 3+ goals

12%

General Lamadrid 1+ goals

61%

General Lamadrid 2+ goals

24%

General Lamadrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)

60%

General Lamadrid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

General Lamadrid away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.37 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 1.07 + General Lamadrid defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

General Lamadrid attack 1.01 + Fénix defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fénix scores more

43%

level

29%

General Lamadrid scores more

28%

Fénix at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fénix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff