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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Ujpest — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ujpest
Ujpest
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe43%
×Draw26%
Ujpest31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.46
Ujpest
1.20

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.91
Ujpest
1.58

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.82
Ujpest
1.00

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
Ujpest+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Ujpest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
69%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Ujpest
74%
Draw or Ujpest
57%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
21%
Ujpest wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
77%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
43%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
18%
Ujpest 1+ goals
70%
Ujpest 2+ goals
34%
Ujpest 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
58%
Ujpest (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Ujpest away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.91 + Ujpest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ujpest attack 1.58 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
43%
level
26%
Ujpest scores more
31%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Ujpest

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Ujpest drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.