Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–2 FCSB: Result & Stats

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

5/16/2021

Liga I · Championship Round - 8Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe35%

×Draw25%

FCSB40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.51

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.41

FCSB

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

1.75

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.07

FCSB

1.75

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.27

FCSB

1.75

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe-0.36scores less

FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw

60%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or FCSB

75%

Draw or FCSB

65%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

16%

FCSB wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

76%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

41%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

17%

FCSB 1+ goals

78%

FCSB 2+ goals

44%

FCSB 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

47%

FCSB (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 7 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.07 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

FCSB attack 1.75 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

35%

level

25%

FCSB scores more

40%

FCSB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff