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FCSB vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
3/17/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 1Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

FCSB48%
×Draw25%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.55
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.08

FCSB creates 44% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 135 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.85
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

FCSB
0.98
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
74%
FCSB or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
75%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
52%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
25%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
79%
FCSB 2+ goals
46%
FCSB 3+ goals
20%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
66%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
29%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
65%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FCSB scores more
48%
level
25%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
26%

FCSB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FCSB 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FCSB beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-1 in Liga I on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.