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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
10/20/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 13Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe41%
×Draw28%
FC Astra Giurgiu31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.28
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.06

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
69%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or FC Astra Giurgiu
72%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
59%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
19%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
72%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
37%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
14%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
65%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
57%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
41%
level
28%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
31%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-2 in Liga I on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sfântu Gheorghe.