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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
4/5/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 3Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe44%
×Draw27%
Farul Constanta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.36
Farul Constanta
1.06

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
Farul Constanta
1.12

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
Farul Constanta
1.31

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
71%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Farul Constanta
73%
Draw or Farul Constanta
56%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
20%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
74%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
39%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
16%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
65%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
29%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
60%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
44%
level
27%
Farul Constanta scores more
29%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Farul Constanta

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Farul Constanta drew 1-1 in Liga I on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Sepsi OSK in Sfântu Gheorghe.