Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 AFC Hermannstadt

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

8/21/2023

Liga I · Round 6Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe48%

×Draw27%

AFC Hermannstadt25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.95

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.42

AFC Hermannstadt

0.95

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 138 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.42

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.00

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw

75%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or AFC Hermannstadt

73%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

52%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

23%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

76%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

41%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

17%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

61%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

25%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

65%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

48%

level

27%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

25%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff