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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs 1. FC Magdeburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
2 – 1
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
1/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe43%
×Draw20%
1. FC Magdeburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2.25
1. FC Magdeburg
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.91
1. FC Magdeburg
3.30

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.82
1. FC Magdeburg
2.60

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
63%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or 1. FC Magdeburg
80%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
57%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
25%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
89%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
65%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
39%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
87%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
61%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
54%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 3.30, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.91 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

1. FC Magdeburg attack 3.30 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
43%
level
20%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
37%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu in Side.