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Sepidrood Rasht vs Saipa — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Saipa
Saipa
2/5/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht30%
×Draw27%
Saipa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
1.13
Saipa
1.40

Saipa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.93
Saipa
0.80

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
2.00
Saipa
1.33

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
57%
Sepidrood Rasht or Saipa
73%
Draw or Saipa
70%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
12%
Saipa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
68%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
31%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
11%
Saipa 1+ goals
75%
Saipa 2+ goals
41%
Saipa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
41%
Saipa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.93 + Saipa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Saipa attack 0.80 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
30%
level
27%
Saipa scores more
43%

Saipa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sepidrood Rasht 2–2 Saipa

Sepidrood Rasht and Saipa drew 2-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 5, 2019.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht).