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Sepidrood Rasht vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
11/2/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht30%
×Draw28%
Pars Jonoubi JAM41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
1.03
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.25

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.93
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.50

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
2.00
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.13

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
59%
Sepidrood Rasht or Pars Jonoubi JAM
72%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
70%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
11%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
64%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
28%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
9%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
71%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
36%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
42%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.93 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.50 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
30%
level
28%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
41%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sepidrood Rasht 1 – 0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Sepidrood Rasht beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 2, 2018.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht).