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Sepidrood Rasht vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
0 – 4
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
8/2/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht36%
×Draw31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
1.01
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.88
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
1.18
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
67%
Sepidrood Rasht or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
69%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
64%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
14%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
64%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
27%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
8%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
62%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
25%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
52%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.88 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
36%
level
31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
33%

Sepidrood Rasht at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sepidrood Rasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Sepidrood Rasht 0–4 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Sepidrood Rasht 4-0 in Azadegan League on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.