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Sepidrood Rasht vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
1 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
7/18/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht46%
×Draw29%
Damash Gilanian24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
1.26
Damash Gilanian
0.83

Sepidrood Rasht creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.88
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
1.18
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
76%
Sepidrood Rasht or Damash Gilanian
71%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
54%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
21%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
72%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
36%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
13%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
56%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
20%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
65%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.88 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.26

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
46%
level
29%
Damash Gilanian scores more
24%

Sepidrood Rasht at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sepidrood Rasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Sepidrood Rasht 1–0 Damash Gilanian

Sepidrood Rasht beat Damash Gilanian 1-0 in Azadegan League on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.