Sepidrood Rasht 2–1 Arman Gohar: Result & Stats

Sepidrood Rasht

FT

2 – 1

Arman Gohar

2/28/2020

Azadegan League · Round 26Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht38%

×Draw29%

Arman Gohar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepidrood RashtExpected goals in this matchArman Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.04

Sepidrood Rasht

1.16

Arman Gohar

1.04

Sepidrood Rasht creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.88

creates per match

0.90

1.18

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht

0.88

Arman Gohar

0.90

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht

1.18

Arman Gohar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Arman Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw

68%

Sepidrood Rasht or Arman Gohar

71%

Draw or Arman Gohar

62%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+

16%

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals

69%

Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals

32%

Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals

11%

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

65%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

28%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)

54%

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.88 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more

38%

level

29%

Arman Gohar scores more

32%

Sepidrood Rasht at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sepidrood Rasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff