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Sepidrood Rasht vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
0 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
9/21/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht25%
×Draw34%
Aluminium Arak41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
0.71
Aluminium Arak
0.99

Aluminium Arak creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.88
Aluminium Arak
0.79

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
1.19
Aluminium Arak
0.53

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
59%
Sepidrood Rasht or Aluminium Arak
66%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
75%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
7%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
51%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
16%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
63%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
26%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
38%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.88 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Aluminium Arak attack 0.79 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
25%
level
34%
Aluminium Arak scores more
41%

Aluminium Arak at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepidrood Rasht vs Aluminium Arak

Sepidrood Rasht and Aluminium Arak drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.