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Sepahan FC vs Paykan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
5/12/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sepahan FC53%
×Draw27%
Paykan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.42
Paykan
0.76

Sepahan FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.68
Paykan
0.91

allows per match

Sepahan FC
0.61
Paykan
1.17

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
80%
Sepahan FC or Paykan
73%
Draw or Paykan
47%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
26%
Paykan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
76%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
41%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
17%
Paykan 1+ goals
53%
Paykan 2+ goals
18%
Paykan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
72%
Paykan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.61 · 116 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.68 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Paykan attack 0.91 + Sepahan FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
53%
level
27%
Paykan scores more
20%

Sepahan FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sepahan FC 5–0 Paykan

Sepahan FC beat Paykan 5-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan.