Sepahan FC 9–0 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Sepahan FC

FT

9 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olmaliq

M. Hosseinnezhad 90+3', 60'

I. Alekasir 87', 79' (pen)

S. Moghanlou 82'

R. Rezaeian 71'

M. Ghorbani 62'

R. Asadi 59'

F. Ahmadzadeh 8'

11/6/2023

AFC Champions League · Group C - 4Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sepahan FC66%

×Draw19%

Olmaliq15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepahan FCExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.00

Sepahan FC

2.28

Olmaliq

1.00

Sepahan FC creates 128% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Sepahan FC

1.78

Olmaliq

1.00

allows per match

Sepahan FC

1.00

Olmaliq

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw

85%

Sepahan FC or Olmaliq

81%

Draw or Olmaliq

34%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

43%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

90%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

66%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

39%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

63%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

26%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

81%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.78 + Olmaliq defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.28

Olmaliq attack 1.00 + Sepahan FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sepahan FC scores more

66%

level

19%

Olmaliq scores more

15%

Sepahan FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Rezaeian

Sepahan FC · D

9.2

Match Events

8'

F. Ahmadzadeh

12'

Farshad AhmadzadehGoal cancelled

37'

Bakhtiyor Kosimov

46'

O. Rustamov← S. Tursunov

57'

Mohammadjavad HosseinnejadGoal cancelled

59'

R. Asadi↳ E. Pahlevan

60'

M. Hosseinnezhad↳ F. Ahmadzadeh

62'

M. Ghorbani↳ R. Asadi

66'

Akramzhon Komilov

66'

Mukhammadanas KhasanovCard upgrade

70'

A. Yousefi← M. Zakipour

70'

I. Alekasir← R. Asadi

70'

B. Dabo← M. Karimi

71'

R. Rezaeian

72'

V. Denisov← K. Giyosov

72'

A. Umirzakov← M. Boakye

79'

I. AlekasirPenalty

81'

S. Moghanlou← F. Ahmadzadeh

81'

A. Sarshogh← E. Pahlevan

82'

S. Moghanlou↳ I. Alekasir

86'

M. Ermatov← M. Kosimov

87'

I. Alekasir↳ M. Hosseinnezhad

88'

S. Bashriddinov← M. Hasanov

90+3'

M. Hosseinnezhad↳ A. Yousefi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SepahanOlmaliq

Overview

67%Possession33%

25Total Shots1

5Corners1

8Fouls5

Shots

25Total Shots1

12On Target0

9Off Target1

4Blocked0

18Inside Box1

7Outside Box0

Passing

67%Possession33%

563Total Passes268

494Accurate Passes197

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Sepahan FC vs Olmaliq

Sepahan FC beat Olmaliq 9-0 in AFC Champions League on November 6, 2023.

Goals: F. Ahmadzadeh (8'), R. Asadi (59'), M. Hosseinnezhad (60', 90+3'), M. Ghorbani (62'), R. Rezaeian (71'), I. Alekasir (79' pen, 87'), S. Moghanlou (82').

Sepahan FC controlled possession (67%) and registered 25 shots to 1.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.

Sepahan FC vs Olmaliq — AFC Champions League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sepahan FC vs Olmaliq