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Sepahan FC vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
2/12/2022Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sepahan FC60%
×Draw26%
Naft Masjed Soleyman13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.47
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.53

Sepahan FC creates 177% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.68
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Sepahan FC
0.61
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
87%
Sepahan FC or Naft Masjed Soleyman
74%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
40%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
77%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
43%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
18%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
41%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
10%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
82%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.61 · 116 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.68 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Sepahan FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
60%
level
26%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
13%

Sepahan FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepahan FC vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Sepahan FC beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 4-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan.