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Sepahan FC vs Gol Gohar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
3/17/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sepahan FC50%
×Draw29%
Gol Gohar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.29
Gol Gohar
0.74

Sepahan FC creates 74% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 101 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.68
Gol Gohar
0.88

allows per match

Sepahan FC
0.61
Gol Gohar
0.91

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
79%
Sepahan FC or Gol Gohar
71%
Draw or Gol Gohar
50%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
23%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
72%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
37%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
14%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
52%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
17%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
70%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.61 · 116 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.68 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Sepahan FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
50%
level
29%
Gol Gohar scores more
21%

Sepahan FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sepahan FC 2–0 Gol Gohar

Sepahan FC beat Gol Gohar 2-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan.