Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sepahan FC vs ATK Mohun Bagan — AFC Cup 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
CANC
16:00
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
9/30/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sepahan FC54%
×Draw20%
ATK Mohun Bagan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
2.31
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.57

Sepahan FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
2.33
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Sepahan FC
1.00
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.29

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
74%
Sepahan FC or ATK Mohun Bagan
80%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
46%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
33%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
90%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
67%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
40%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
79%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
46%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
67%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 2.33 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.31

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Sepahan FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
54%
level
20%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
26%

Sepahan FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sepahan FC vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Match Preview

Sepahan FC face ATK Mohun Bagan on September 30, 2025 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sepahan FC host ATK Mohun Bagan at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.