Sepahan FC 2–1 Al Sadd: Result & Stats

Sepahan FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Sadd

9/24/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sepahan FC47%

×Draw25%

Al Sadd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepahan FCExpected goals in this matchAl Sadd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.18

Sepahan FC

1.61

Al Sadd

1.18

Sepahan FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 34 away

1.60

creates per match

1.26

1.10

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sepahan FC

1.60

Al Sadd

1.26

allows per match

Sepahan FC

1.10

Al Sadd

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Al Sadd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw

72%

Sepahan FC or Al Sadd

75%

Draw or Al Sadd

53%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

24%

Al Sadd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

80%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

48%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

22%

Al Sadd 1+ goals

69%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

33%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

63%

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.60 + Al Sadd defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al Sadd attack 1.26 + Sepahan FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sepahan FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Al Sadd scores more

28%

Sepahan FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff