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Sepahan FC vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
9/15/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sepahan FC37%
×Draw27%
Al-Nassr37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.28
Al-Nassr
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.60
Al-Nassr
1.46

allows per match

Sepahan FC
1.10
Al-Nassr
0.96

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
63%
Sepahan FC or Al-Nassr
73%
Draw or Al-Nassr
63%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
16%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
72%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
37%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
14%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
72%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
37%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.60 + Al-Nassr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al-Nassr attack 1.46 + Sepahan FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
37%
level
27%
Al-Nassr scores more
37%

Sepahan FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepahan FC vs Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Sepahan FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on September 15, 2020.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.