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Sepahan FC vs Ahal — AFC Cup 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ahal
Ahal
11/4/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sepahan FC48%
×Draw24%
Ahal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.74
Ahal
1.27

Sepahan FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
2.33
Ahal
1.54

allows per match

Sepahan FC
1.00
Ahal
1.15

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
72%
Sepahan FC or Ahal
76%
Draw or Ahal
52%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
26%
Ahal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
82%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
52%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
25%
Ahal 1+ goals
72%
Ahal 2+ goals
36%
Ahal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
63%
Ahal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 2.33 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ahal attack 1.54 + Sepahan FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Ahal scores more
28%

Sepahan FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepahan FC vs Ahal

Sepahan FC and Ahal drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on November 4, 2025.

The match was played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan.