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Seoul W vs Incheon Red Angels W — WK-League 2026

Seoul W
Seoul W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Incheon Red Angels W
Incheon Red Angels W
6/12/2025WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 16Sangam Auxiliary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Seoul W28%
×Draw25%
Incheon Red Angels W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul W
1.14
Incheon Red Angels W
1.57

Incheon Red Angels W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

creates per match

Seoul W
1.47
Incheon Red Angels W
1.66

allows per match

Seoul W
1.49
Incheon Red Angels W
0.80

finishing

Seoul W+0.00on par
Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul W ↓

Incheon Red Angels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Seoul W or draw
53%
Seoul W or Incheon Red Angels W
75%
Draw or Incheon Red Angels W
72%

Winning margin

Seoul W wins by 2+
11%
Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Seoul W 1+ goals
68%
Seoul W 2+ goals
32%
Seoul W 3+ goals
11%
Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals
79%
Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals
46%
Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Seoul W (draw refunded)
37%
Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Incheon Red Angels W away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul W attack 1.47 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.66 + Seoul W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Seoul W scores more
28%
level
25%
Incheon Red Angels W scores more
47%

Incheon Red Angels W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seoul W vs Incheon Red Angels W

Seoul W and Incheon Red Angels W drew 1-1 in WK-League on June 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sangam Auxiliary Stadium in Seoul.