Incheon Red Angels W vs Seoul W

Incheon Red Angels W

ABD

10:00

Seoul W

7/18/2026

WK-League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Incheon Red Angels W62%

×Draw21%

Seoul W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon Red Angels WExpected goals in this matchSeoul W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.91

Incheon Red Angels W

1.96

Seoul W

0.91

Incheon Red Angels W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

1.92

creates per match

1.07

0.75

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Incheon Red Angels W

1.92

Seoul W

1.07

allows per match

Incheon Red Angels W

0.75

Seoul W

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon Red Angels W+0.00on par

Seoul W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon Red Angels W ↓

Seoul W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Incheon Red Angels W or draw

83%

Incheon Red Angels W or Seoul W

79%

Draw or Seoul W

38%

Winning margin

Incheon Red Angels W wins by 2+

37%

Seoul W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Incheon Red Angels W 1+ goals

86%

Incheon Red Angels W 2+ goals

58%

Incheon Red Angels W 3+ goals

31%

Seoul W 1+ goals

60%

Seoul W 2+ goals

23%

Seoul W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Incheon Red Angels W (draw refunded)

79%

Seoul W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon Red Angels W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 83 matches

Seoul W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon Red Angels W attack 1.92 + Seoul W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.96

Seoul W attack 1.07 + Incheon Red Angels W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Incheon Red Angels W scores more

62%

level

21%

Seoul W scores more

17%

Incheon Red Angels W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Incheon Red Angels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff