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Seoul E-Land FC vs Suwon City FC — FA Cup 2019

Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
Bruno Oliveira 85'
Gwak Seong-Uk 50'
Jang Jae-Woong 21'
4/12/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundMokdong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Seoul E-Land FC67%
×Draw21%
Suwon City FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul E-Land FC
1.93
Suwon City FC
0.68

Seoul E-Land FC creates 184% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Seoul E-Land FC
2.60
Suwon City FC
0.75

allows per match

Seoul E-Land FC
0.60
Suwon City FC
1.25

finishing

Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul E-Land FC ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Seoul E-Land FC or draw
88%
Seoul E-Land FC or Suwon City FC
79%
Draw or Suwon City FC
33%

Winning margin

Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
41%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
85%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
57%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
30%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
49%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
15%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
84%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul E-Land FC at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul E-Land FC attack 2.60 + Suwon City FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Suwon City FC attack 0.75 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Seoul E-Land FC scores more
67%
level
21%
Suwon City FC scores more
12%

Seoul E-Land FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Seoul E-Land FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Jang Jae-Woong
38'
Kwak Dong-Joon
50'
Gwak Seong-Uk
85'
Bruno Oliveira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seoul E-Land FC vs Suwon City FC

Seoul E-Land FC beat Suwon City FC 2-1 in FA Cup on April 12, 2023.

Goals: Jang Jae-Woong (21'), Gwak Seong-Uk (50'), Bruno Oliveira (85').

The match was played at Mokdong Stadium in Seoul.