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Seoul E-Land FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 — K League 2 2026

Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
5/21/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 14Mokdong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Seoul E-Land FC39%
×Draw26%
Bucheon FC 199534%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seoul E-Land FC
1.36
Bucheon FC 1995
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 146 away

creates per match

Seoul E-Land FC
1.32
Bucheon FC 1995
1.16

allows per match

Seoul E-Land FC
1.34
Bucheon FC 1995
1.41

finishing

Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par
Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seoul E-Land FC ↓

Bucheon FC 1995 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Seoul E-Land FC or draw
66%
Seoul E-Land FC or Bucheon FC 1995
74%
Draw or Bucheon FC 1995
61%

Winning margin

Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
18%
Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
74%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
39%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
16%
Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
71%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
36%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
53%
Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seoul E-Land FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 152 matches

Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seoul E-Land FC attack 1.32 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.16 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Seoul E-Land FC scores more
39%
level
26%
Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
34%

Seoul E-Land FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Seoul E-Land FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Seoul E-Land FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995

Seoul E-Land FC and Bucheon FC 1995 drew 1-1 in K League 2 on May 21, 2024.

The match was played at Mokdong Stadium in Seoul.