Seosan Pioneer 3–1 Pyeongtaek Citizen

Seosan Pioneer

FT

3 – 1

Pyeongtaek Citizen

3/28/2026

K4 League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Seosan Pioneer35%

×Draw23%

Pyeongtaek Citizen42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seosan PioneerExpected goals in this matchPyeongtaek Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.78

Seosan Pioneer

1.61

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.78

Pyeongtaek Citizen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

1.17

2.40

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Seosan Pioneer

1.40

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.17

allows per match

Seosan Pioneer

2.40

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seosan Pioneer ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Seosan Pioneer or draw

58%

Seosan Pioneer or Pyeongtaek Citizen

77%

Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen

65%

Winning margin

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+

17%

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals

80%

Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals

48%

Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals

22%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals

83%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals

53%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)

45%

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seosan Pioneer at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.40 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Seosan Pioneer scores more

35%

level

23%

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more

42%

Pyeongtaek Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pyeongtaek Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff